Today's NBA player props ranked by historical hit rate — how often each player has cleared their current PrizePicks line over their last 5 and 10 games. Updated November 5, 2026.
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Last 5 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | PHX | Pts+Rebs | 22.5 | 5/5 | 9/10 |
| Miles Bridges | PHX | Rebounds | 6.5 | 4/5 | 9/10 |
| Devin Booker | PHX | 3-PT Made | 1.5 | 5/5 | 89% |
| Davion Mitchell | MIA | Fantasy Score | 28.5 | 4/5 | 88% |
| Bam Adebayo | MIA | Fantasy Score | 43.5 | 5/5 | 8/10 |
| Brandin Podziemski | GSW | Points | 16.5 | 5/5 | 8/10 |
| Brandin Podziemski | GSW | Pts+Rebs+Asts | 26 | 5/5 | 8/10 |
| Dillon Brooks | PHX | Pts+Rebs+Asts | 23 | 5/5 | 8/10 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIA | Fantasy Score | 56 | 5/5 | 8/10 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | GSW | Fantasy Score | 35.5 | 3/5 | 8/10 |
These are hit rates, not predictions — how often each player actually cleared tonight's posted number. We lead with the 6-to-9-out-of-10 band on purpose: a 10-for-10 row almost always means the sample is too small to trust, not that the bet is free.
No account needed. One email, sent as soon as you sign up: today's props clearing 60% or better over their last 10 games, plus one pick from the Pro model.
Every NBA player, every stat type, PrizePicks and Underdog lines tracked separately, sortable and searchable. Free with an account.
A hit rate tells you how the current line compares to a player's recent production. A player at 90% over their last 10 games has cleared today's posted number in 9 of 10 — either the player's role has grown faster than the market adjusted, or the line is conservative. Either way, it's a research candidate, not an automatic pick.
Hit rates look backward; projections look at today's specific matchup — opponent defense, pace, and rest. When both point the same direction, the pick has two independent signals. Our NBA player projections are updated for every slate — here's how they're built.
Blowout risk cuts star minutes; schedule congestion suppresses efficiency; pace scales every counting stat. The NBA hub dashboard projects scores, spreads, and totals for each matchup so you can validate the environment behind any over.
PrizePicks and Underdog regularly post different numbers on the same player. A half point on an NBA line is worth a few percentage points of win probability — small per pick, meaningful across a season. Platform guides: NBA PrizePicks props · NBA Underdog props.
NBA lines on star players are the most efficient in prop betting — but role changes move faster than the market. A teammate ruled out at 6 PM, a rookie promoted into a closing lineup, a starter on a minutes restriction: the player's last-10 hit rate still reflects the old role while the projection already prices in the new one. Reading those two numbers together is where NBA hit-rate screening earns its keep — especially on rotation players, whose lines carry far less modeling scrutiny than star lines.
Every current PrizePicks NBA line is compared against the player's actual game logs. The hit rate is the share of recent games (last 5 and last 10) in which the player's final stat cleared today's posted line.
Neither — they are historical hit rates, the starting point for research. A high hit rate means the market line has been consistently below the player's recent production. Confirm with a projection and the matchup before entering any pick.
Hit rates refresh throughout the day as PrizePicks posts and adjusts NBA lines. The full sortable table with every player, stat type, and Underdog lines is free with an account.
The teaser table on this page shows PrizePicks lines. The full historical props tool tracks Underdog NBA lines separately, because the two platforms frequently post different numbers for the same player.
Free historical hit rates on every PrizePicks and Underdog NBA line. Pro membership adds projections, prop simulations, top plays, and the game model.