Las Vegas Aces 2026 WNBA Season Preview: Roster, DFS Targets & Win Total
Team Snapshot
2025 Record: 30-14 (#2 seed, Western Conference)
Playoff Finish: 2025 WNBA Champions (swept Phoenix Mercury 4-0 in Finals)
Head Coach: Becky Hammon
2026 Win Total: 31.5 | Tier: Overwhelming Championship Favorite
Team Identity: Elite two-way powerhouse anchored by A'ja Wilson's dominance; core re-signed intact for back-to-back championship push
What Changed
2025 Offseason Moves (defining championship core):
- Jewell Loyd acquired – 3-team trade: Aces received Loyd from Seattle, sent Kelsey Plum to Los Angeles (Sparks), Storm involved for depth
- Dana Evans acquired – Trade from Chicago Sky; secondary ballhandler and scoring punch
- Kelsey Plum departed – Traded to Los Angeles Sparks (championship-winning tradeoff)
🆕 2026 Offseason Updates (as of April 10):
- A'ja Wilson: Expected to re-sign on SUPERMAX ($1.4M) 🔍 — All but confirmed; defending MVP returning
- Chelsea Gray: Re-signed on 3-year multi-million dollar deal ✅ DONE — Core anchor secured through negotiation period
- Jackie Young: Re-signed on 1-year regular max ($1.19M) ✅ DONE — Elite shooter locked in
- Jewell Loyd: Returning to the Aces ✅ DONE — Championship trio intact
- Aaliyah Nye: Lost to Toronto Tempo in expansion draft — Rookie departure, minimal impact to rotation
- Championship Core: RUNNING IT BACK — All four stars expected/confirmed to re-sign. Essentially an unchanged roster from 2025 Finals run.
Continuity: Exceptional — A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Jewell Loyd represent unchanged 2025 Finals nucleus. Dana Evans provides secondary ball-handling. No significant departures or additions beyond re-signings.
🆕 2026 Draft Selections (April 13)
- Janiah Barker (R2, #29): Forward depth
- Jordan Obi (R3, #44): Depth
Championship teams don't need major draft capital — the Aces focused on protecting their core and went light in the draft. Barker and Obi are depth pieces; no impact on the starting rotation or win projection.
🆕 Latest News (April 17)
- A'ja Wilson officially signed 3-year, $5 million supermax: CONFIRMED — Largest contract in WNBA history; previously listed as "expected." Lock it in.
- Chelsea Gray officially signed 3-year $3M: CONFIRMED — Fully guaranteed, multi-year deal
- Chennedy Carter signed training camp contract: Carter last played in 2024; high-upside depth gamble; adds competition for the backup guard spot post-Nye departure
- All four star re-signings confirmed: Wilson/Gray/Young/Loyd officially locked in
All four stars are now officially confirmed. This is a complete roster lock for back-to-back championship pursuit. No uncertainty. The Aces are the West's #1 favorite and most proven championship core.
Projected Rotation
Starting Five:
PG: Chelsea Gray | SG: Jewell Loyd | SF: Jackie Young | PF: [TBD] | C: A'ja Wilson
Key Bench: Dana Evans (scoring guard), bench depth TBD pending free agent signings and re-signings
Rotation Battles: Power forward role; backup guard depth post-Plum trade
Closing Lineup: Gray, Loyd, Young, Wilson (elite perimeter + interior duo)
Statistical Profile
| Stat | 2025 Value | League Rank | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Off Rtg | 113.5 | #2 of 13 | Elite spacing; Wilson's versatility unlocks pick-and-roll offense |
| Def Rtg | 103.8 | #1 of 13 | Championship-caliber defense; steals + rebounding combo elite |
| Net Rtg | +9.7 | #1 of 13 | League-best net rating; 30-win pace sustainable with continuity |
| Pace | 97.8 | #5 of 13 | Balanced tempo; halfcourt execution + transition balance |
| eFG% | 51.2% | #2 of 13 | Elite efficiency; Loyd and Young spacing improves shot diet |
| TOV% | 14.3% | #3 of 13 | Gray's ballhandling; limited self-inflicted turnovers |
| ORB% | 29.1% | #1 of 13 | Wilson's length generates second-chance advantages |
Note: 2025 stats reflect championship-winning roster; 2026 projects continuity if core re-signed
Playing Style
- Primary Identity: Two-way excellence anchored by A'ja Wilson's versatile dominance (interior scoring, spacing, defense, rebounding). Elite perimeter trio (Gray, Loyd, Young) provides ballhandling and spacing.
- Tempo: Balanced; willingness to push pace in transition but executes efficiently in halfcourt sets.
- Three-Point Volume: High (36% of FGA); Loyd and Young create pull-up and catch-and-shoot opportunities; Gray's range opens driving lanes.
- Rebounding: Elite; Wilson's length and positioning create +rebound differential every game; secondary rebounding from guards adds to advantage.
- Transition Game: Efficient; Gray and Loyd initiate fast breaks; Wilson in roll mode creates overload scenarios.
- Defensive Identity: Switch-heavy with Wilson anchoring rim; perimeter pressure from Gray and Loyd forces turnovers.
DFS Impact Analysis
Championship Core Re-Signing Status:
A'ja Wilson (Center):
- Minutes: 34-36 (MVP-caliber workhorse)
- Usage: Elite (26-28% USG)
- Categories: Points, rebounds, blocks, three-pointers (expanded range)
- DFS Impact: Premium salary but elite floor (25+ DFS points) and ceiling (50+); tournament anchor; game-script proof
Chelsea Gray (Point Guard):
- Minutes: 32-34
- Usage: High (22-24% USG)
- Categories: Assists (7-8 per game), three-pointers, steals
- DFS Impact: Salary premium; elite floor; ballhandling catalyst; discount if injury concerns emerge
Jewell Loyd (Shooting Guard):
- Minutes: 31-33
- Usage: High (20-22% USG)
- Categories: Points, three-pointers, steals
- DFS Impact: Acquisition beneficiary; elite scoring punch; three-point upside; tournament leverage
Jackie Young (Small Forward):
- Minutes: 30-32
- Usage: High (18-20% USG)
- Categories: Points, three-pointers, assists (playmaking expanded in 2025)
- DFS Impact: Secondary scoring option; spacing specialist; consistent floor/ceiling; mid-tier salary
Dana Evans (Guard):
- Minutes: 18-24
- Usage: Medium (12-14% USG)
- Categories: Points, assists (ballhandling secondary)
- DFS Impact: Value differential; scoring punch off bench; monitor minutes for escalation
Fantasy Targets:
- Core Play: A'ja Wilson — league's most consistent 45+ DFS point floor; tournament essential; game-script proof
- Ceiling Play: Jewell Loyd — 50+ ceiling in favorable matchups; three-point upside (40%+ career); trade acquisition leverage
- Value Sleeper: Jackie Young — underpriced relative to scoring volume; spacing creates shot diet advantages; tournament leverage
- Fade: Overpaying Chelsea Gray on 7-assist nights — elite baseline but ceiling limited; ballhandling creates turnovers in high-variance games
- Rotation Risk: Dana Evans minutes TBD; post-Plum departure, backup guard role critical for salary viability
Three Big Questions
- Is the Aces' re-signed core enough to repeat? With Wilson, Gray, Young, and Loyd locked in, the roster is championship-proven. No new star additions means relying on continuity and chemistry—can they execute at the same elite level?
- How will expansion draft losses affect depth? Losing rookie Aaliyah Nye is minimal, but the bench remains thin. Can Dana Evans and supporting cast stay healthy for a 44-game gauntlet?
- Can they maintain Western Conference dominance? Even with core intact, Lynx (if Collier re-signs), Storm, and upgraded Atlanta Dream pose playoff threats. Will the 31-33 win projection hold?
Health Watch
- A'ja Wilson: Coming off dominant 2025 MVP-caliber season; no durability concerns
- Chelsea Gray: Clean health profile; playmaking load-dependent
- Jewell Loyd: Durable; typical season-long availability expected
Season Outlook
Best Case: 33 wins — Core re-signed intact; championship chemistry prevails; back-to-back titles; repeat as West #1
Base Case: 31 wins — Unchanged roster repeats 2025 dominance; Wilson MVP-caliber year; Finals favorites in West
Worst Case: 28 wins — Key injury to Wilson or Gray; depth limitations expose in West Finals; second seed
Win Range: 28–33 wins
Playoff Odds: 95%
Prediction: 31 wins, #1 seed, back-to-back Finals appearance—likely championship. The core is locked in as of April 10. This is no longer a question mark—it's a confirmed powerhouse. Las Vegas has essentially run it back with an unchanged championship roster. The 2025 title wasn't a fluke; it was a blueprint. With Wilson on supermax, Gray/Young/Loyd confirmed, the Aces have the West's best two-way depth and highest ceiling. DFS slate is simple: Wilson is your tournament anchor (game-script proof), Gray is your facilitator foundation, and Young/Loyd are your ceiling plays. The question shifts from "Will they re-sign?" to "Will injuries derail another Finals run?"